HSBC Championships·Quarterfinal·Grass

Alex de Minaur v Brandon Nakashima

JUNE 19, 2026

Model win probabilityLow confidence

Alex de Minaur

55%

Brandon Nakashima

45%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Brandon Nakashimawon5-7 3-6

Model missed

Comparison

Alex de MinaurBrandon Nakashima

ATP rank

#16

2010

ELO

1995

1710

ELO · Grass

1651

WWLWL

Last 5

WWLWL

1-1 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Alex de Minaur v Brandon Nakashima — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Fabian Marozsan beat Alejandro Tabilo6-2 6-3Mallorca · 2026+7 ELO
Alexei Popyrin beat Arthur Rinderknech6-3 7-6(6)s Hertogenbosch · 2023-4 ELO
Ignacio Buse beat Stefanos Tsitsipas6-7 3-6Mallorca · 2026+40 ELO
Brandon Nakashima beat Ignacio Buse6-2 6-2London · 2026-14 ELO
Fabian Marozsan beat Thiago Agustin Tirante5-7 3-6 4-6Wimbledon · 2026+45 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.