National Bank Open presented by Rogers·Round 1·Hard

Daniel Merida v Liam Draxl

AUGUST 4, 2026

Model win probabilityMedium confidence

Daniel Merida

62%

Liam Draxl

38%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Daniel Meridawon3-6 6-4 6-4

Model correct

Comparison

Daniel MeridaLiam Draxl

#41

ATP rank

#217

1862

ELO

1562

1686

ELO · Hard

1523

WLWWL

Last 5

LLWWL

0-0 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Daniel Merida v Liam Draxl — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Ugo Humbert beat Kimmer Coppejans6-4 6-3Antwerp · 2020+290 ELO
Daniil Medvedev beat Rei Sakamoto67(10) 63 61Miami Open presented by Itau · 2026+309 ELO
Daniil Medvedev beat Roberto Carballes Baena6-1 6-2Miami Masters · 2023+274 ELO
Daniil Medvedev beat Roberto Carballes Baena6-2 7-5 6-1Australian Open · 2021+274 ELO
Daniil Medvedev beat Roberto Carballes Baena6-2 6-3Indian Wells Masters · 2024+274 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.