National Bank Open presented by Rogers·Round 2·Hard

Frances Tiafoe v Marin Cilic

AUGUST 4, 2026

Model win probabilityMedium confidence

Frances Tiafoe

62%

Marin Cilic

38%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Frances Tiafoewon5-7 6-2 6-2

Model correct

Comparison

Frances TiafoeMarin Cilic

ATP rank

#80

2036

ELO

1841

1933

ELO · Hard

1778

WWWWL

Last 5

LLLWL

0-2 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Frances Tiafoe v Marin Cilic — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Frances Tiafoe beat Rinky Hijikata6-4 6-1 6-4Us Open · 2023+196 ELO
Frances Tiafoe beat Rinky Hijikata64 64Delray Beach Open · 2026+196 ELO
Rinky Hijikata beat Luciano Darderi46 62 64BNP Paribas Open · 2026+194 ELO
Luciano Darderi beat Rinky Hijikata6-2 6-1 6-2US Open · 2025+194 ELO
Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Diego Schwartzman6-3 6-3Cincinnati Masters · 2022+194 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.