National Bank Open presented by Rogers·Round 1·Hard

Jacob Fearnley v Adrian Mannarino

AUGUST 4, 2026

Model win probabilityMedium confidence

Jacob Fearnley

39%

Adrian Mannarino

61%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Jacob Fearnleywon7-6 6-4

Model missed

Comparison

Jacob FearnleyAdrian Mannarino

#97

ATP rank

#79

1774

ELO

1756

1683

ELO · Hard

1746

WWLWL

Last 5

LLLWL

0-0 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Jacob Fearnley v Adrian Mannarino — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Ilya Ivashka beat Stan Wawrinka6-4 1-1 RETMarseille · 2018+23 ELO
Filip Krajinovic beat Pierre Hugues Herbert6-4 6-4Miami Masters · 2019+12 ELO
Guido Pella beat Ilya Ivashka4-6 6-3 6-4St. Petersburg · 2018+28 ELO
Jeremy Chardy beat Adrian Mannarino7-5 4-6 6-1Indian Wells Masters · 2018+30 ELO
Jack Sock beat Filip Krajinovic5-7 6-4 6-1Paris Masters · 2017+5 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.