National Bank Open presented by Rogers·Round 2·Hard

James Duckworth v Alex de Minaur

AUGUST 4, 2026

Model win probabilityHigh confidence

James Duckworth

11%

Alex de Minaur

89%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Alex de Minaurwon2-6 6-7

Model correct

Comparison

James DuckworthAlex de Minaur

#67

ATP rank

1722

ELO

2010

1692

ELO · Hard

1977

WLWWL

Last 5

WWLWL

0-2 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to James Duckworth v Alex de Minaur — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Alex de Minaur beat Jurij Rodionov6-4 6-1Vienna · 2025-286 ELO
Alex De Minaur beat Stan Wawrinka64 62ABN AMRO Open · 2026-296 ELO
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina beat Taro Daniel6-2 7-6(2)Delray Beach · 2025-296 ELO
James Duckworth beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina6-3 6-4Los Cabos · 2025-278 ELO
Zhizhen Zhang beat Lorenzo Musetti6-2 6-0Doha · 2024-300 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.