National Bank Open presented by Rogers·Round 1·Hard

Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone

AUGUST 3, 2026

Model win probabilityMedium confidence

Matteo Berrettini

68%

Mariano Navone

32%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Mariano Navonewon3-6 7-6 3-6

Model missed

Comparison

Matteo BerrettiniMariano Navone

#43

ATP rank

#45

1917

ELO

1864

1844

ELO · Hard

1595

LWLWL

Last 5

LLWWL

2-0 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Matteo Berrettini v Mariano Navone — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Jaime Faria beat Nikoloz Basilashvili6-4 6-4Cincinnati · 2026+51 ELO
Tomas Martin Etcheverry beat Miomir Kecmanovic4-6 7-6(6) 6-4Paris Masters · 2023+58 ELO
Tomas Martin Etcheverry beat Miomir Kecmanovic6-4 4-6 6-3Stockholm · 2025+58 ELO
Jakub Mensik beat Hamad Medjedovic1-6 6-3 3-6Auckland, New Zealand · 2026+48 ELO
Alejandro Tabilo beat Ignacio Buse2-6 6-3 6-2Davis Cup QLS R1: CHI vs PER · 2024+60 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.