National Bank Open presented by Rogers·Round 1·Hard

Pablo Carreno Busta v Valentin Royer

AUGUST 4, 2026

Model win probabilityMedium confidence

Pablo Carreno Busta

64%

Valentin Royer

36%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Valentin Royerwon6-1 5-7 2-6

Model missed

Comparison

Pablo Carreno BustaValentin Royer

#71

ATP rank

#81

1795

ELO

1627

1741

ELO · Hard

1588

LWLLL

Last 5

LWLLL

0-0 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Pablo Carreno Busta v Valentin Royer — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Juncheng Shang beat Karen Khachanov7-6(3) 6-3Shanghai · 2025+165 ELO
Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Pablo Cuevas6-1 6-4Antwerp · 2017+164 ELO
Karen Khachanov beat Valentin Royer6-4 7-6(6)Cincinnati Masters · 2025+172 ELO
Hubert Hurkacz beat Stan Wawrinka7-6(5) 6-4United Cup · 2023+162 ELO
Hubert Hurkacz beat Alex Bolt7-6(2) 6-1San Diego · 2021+162 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.