National Bank Open presented by Rogers·Round 1·Hard

Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci

AUGUST 4, 2026

Model win probabilityLow confidence

Sebastian Baez

45%

Mattia Bellucci

55%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Sebastian Baezwon7-5 6-3

Model missed

Comparison

Sebastian BaezMattia Bellucci

#51

ATP rank

#90

1785

ELO

1804

1675

ELO · Hard

1702

WLLWL

Last 5

LWLWL

0-0 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Botic van de Zandschulp beat Marton Fucsovics7-6(3) 3-6 7-5Stockholm · 2021-20 ELO
Marton Fucsovics beat Tallon Griekspoor6-4 7-6(4)Rotterdam · 2022-20 ELO
Marton Fucsovics beat Tallon Griekspoor6-3 4-6 6-3Winston-Salem · 2025-20 ELO
Mattia Bellucci beat Adrian Mannarino7-6(6) 4-6 6-3Atlanta · 2024-19 ELO
Marin Cilic beat Botic van de Zandschulp6-3 6-3St. Petersburg · 2021-17 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.