HSBC Championships·Quarterfinal·Grass

Tommy Paul v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

JUNE 19, 2026

Model win probabilityMedium confidence

Tommy Paul

62%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

38%

SHADED AREA = WIN PROBABILITY · SOLID LINE = MODEL SPLIT · DASHED = NET

Result

Tommy Paulwon6-3 7-6

Model correct

Comparison

Tommy PaulAlejandro Davidovich Fokina

#19

ATP rank

#30

2043

ELO

1975

1664

ELO · Grass

1611

LWWWL

Last 5

WWLWL

5-0 →

Head to head

Matches that looked like this

Past match-ups the model considers closest in shape to Tommy Paul v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — similar playing styles, same surface, comparable rating gap. Style similarity comes from the sequence model's own view of each player, not from rankings.

Miomir Kecmanovic beat Yibing Wu7-6(4) 7-6(5)Eastbourne · 2023+67 ELO
Benjamin Bonzi beat Arthur Rinderknech7-6(3) 6-2Stuttgart · 2022+70 ELO
Nuno Borges beat Terence Atmane64 64Libema Open · 2026+62 ELO
Miomir Kecmanovic beat Alejandro Tabilo7-6(4) 7-6(3) 3-6 6-3Wimbledon · 2022+56 ELO
Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Benjamin Bonzi7-6(1) 1-6 6-3Halle · 2022+54 ELO

Win probabilities are statistical estimates produced by OddsKick's model and are provided for informational purposes only. Model outputs can be wrong.